Health Spectator

The World Health Organization reported today that should the current North American swine flu outbreak become a pandemic, it might affect a third of the world’s population. WHO’s Keiji Fukuda, an influenza expert, said that while there was no predicting at this point what will actually happen, a pandemic would probably infect about 2 billion people. To become a pandemic and thereby move the WHO’s health alert status for the disease outbreak to level 6—the top level—it would have to spread to another region of the world. (more…)

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Swine flu spreads; another American dies

Electron micrograph of swine flu virus.

Although present dangers from swine flu may be less severe than originally feared, victims continue to die from the disease as it spreads across the globe. The latest developments place new cases in Australia, China and Japan, while new deaths linked to the disease have occurred in Costa Rica, Mexico and the United States. A Washington state man was the third confirmed casualty (more…)

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A Utah man who died today is the ninth U.S. victim

The worldwide death toll from swine flu had already reached 80 when a man who local officials said died of swine flu succumbed in Salt Lake City Wednesday. (more…)

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H1N1 spreads to five new countries

The World Health Organization (WHO) announced today that the H1N1 virus has spread to Taiwan, Kuwait, Iceland, Switzerland and Honduras, with a total 12,515 people infected. The death toll has reached 91. Eighty of those deaths have occurred in Mexico, a country that also accounts for 4,174 of the total infections.

Canada and Costa Rica have each had one death from the disease; the remaining nine have been in the United States. So far, the disease has not been detected in Africa, where it is feared it will achieve pandemic status should it occur. Because of widespread poverty in that region, the death rate there could easily meet or exceed the levels seen so far only in Mexico.

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As the “new” A(H1N1) swine flu spreads in the U.S., 13,217 cases are current in all 50 states plus the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico. There were 27 U.S. deaths from the flu as of 11 am today, according to the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) in Atlanta. At the time of our last report on U.S. fatalities a week ago, deaths totaled 15, with 48 states and Washington, DC claiming 8,975 infections.

That gives the U.S. an increase of 4,242 cases in one week, with 12 more dead over the same period—an 80% increase in deaths for a 47% increase in cases. (more…)

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World Health Organization’s Keiji Fukuda, chief of that organization’s influenza group, said today that WHO is “getting closer” to declaring a stage 6 (pandemic) status for the A(H1N1) swine flu, according to the Associated Press.

Today’s update on WHO’s website had not yet appeared as of 2:26 pm EST, but early reports say WHO is setting the number of global infections at 18,965 across 64 countries, with 117 deaths. That number contrasts with the figures of 17,410 cases across 62 countries and 115 deaths posted on June 1.

India has reported two more cases of the “new” swine flu, bring that country’s total to three infections. Those individuals are being quarantined. Egypt has reported its first case of swine flu, despite having ordered the country-wide slaughter of all pigs.

Meanwhile, an 11-week-old child has become New York City’s fifth casualty to swine flu, according to reports from AP and the Daily News. The Daily News identifies the child as Steven Montanez, from the Bronx.

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We mentioned in our last posting on swine flu that if cases in Australia increased significantly, the World Health Organization (WHO) may be forced to declare A(H1N1) a pandemic.

Cases in Australia have continued to mount. Friday’s figure was 876 confirmed cases in Australia, according to WHO statistics, which are updated Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays. As of today, WHO is reporting 1,051 cases in Australia, while the local weblog Swine Flu in Australia, is reporting that Australian cases have reached 1,207.

Since Australia is just now entering the winter season, its swine flu caseload could explode. Swine Flu in Australia is also reporting that thanks to a soccer match last week, “the entire Queensland team is now in quarantine after a player tested positive to Swine Flu.”

The latest WHO figures put the global swine flu count at 25,288 cases, with 139 dead and 73 countries affected. Those figures were released as of 6:00 am GMT, Monday, June 8.

Meanwhile, Dehli reported its first swine flu case yesterday, bringing India’s total swine flu caseload to 10 as of Sunday. Those figures are not reflected in this morning’s WHO report.

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First pandemic declared in 41 years

Acceding to a global rise in A(H1N1) infections, the World Health Organization today raised its pandemic alert level for swine flu to level 6—its highest level.

Asking member nations not to impose restrictions on travel or anything that might interfere with commerce, the organization stressed that the alert level reflects the widespread nature of the flu—its “unstoppability”—but not the severity of its symptoms or the number of its fatalities, which so far appear to be below the levels posed by so-called “seasonal” flu.

Indeed, WHO recommends that drug manufacturers stay on track with producing their annual allotments of seasonal flu vaccines before switching over to produce vaccines for swine flu.

In a report early last week, Health Spectator had reported that the novel H1N1 epidemic had technically achieved pandemic status according to WHO’s guidelines just by virtue of its rapid spread in Australia. The outbreak began in North America, and WHO guidelines specify a pandemic level 6 when the infection has achieved uncontrolled human-to-human transmission in more than one part of the globe.

There have been 28,774 infections reported in 74 countries to date, including 144 deaths, according to WHO’s latest tally of laboratory-confirmed cases.

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The World Health Organization (WHO) is investigating a reported bubonic plague outbreak in the Libyan coastal town of Tubruq, which sits on the Mediterranean.

According to reports attributed to John Jabhour, a WHO emerging diseases expert based in Cairo, about 16 to 18 people have been affected so far, with one dead. A WHO team was on its way to investigate the outbreak and confirm whether it was indeed bubonic plague.

In fact, bubonic plague outbreaks are not all that uncommon, and 10 or 20 cases are reported within the United States annually. The disease—which mainly infects rodents and is spread by insect bites, especially fleas—afflicts 1,000 to 2,000 people each year. If confirmed, these will be the first cases of bubonic plague in Libya for twenty years, but outbreaks have been occurring in the Congo, Mozambique, Malawi and Madagascar with relative frequency since at least 2002. Algeria had its first outbreak in 50 years in 2003.

Fortunately, the bacterial infection is treatable with antibiotics (streptomycin is the drug of choice, according to WHO) if detected early.

While the bubonic form of the plague is generally treatable—this is the form referred to as the Black Death during the Middle Ages—a newer form called pneumonic plague (which, just as it sounds, affects the lungs) is highly contagious via airborne particles. There is also a septicemic form of the disease, which infects the blood.

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According to a posting by the Associated Press penned by Frank Jordans with the dateline Geneva, “U.S. health officials estimate the United States has passed the 1 million case mark.” The story is an interview with World Health Organization (WHO) second-in-command, Keiji Fukuda.

The wording of that story took many readers by surprise. It gave us pause, too. Finally we realized.

Health Spectator initially reported on June 25 that mathematical modeling by Lyn Finelli, an official with the CDC had projected that there might be one million swine flu infections in the U.S. at that time. So the AP and other sources are just trotting out this old figure. It does not represent a new set of figures released by any U.S. health officials, as the story seems to imply.

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